Every Sunday night I try to project the point spread for each college football matchup. Once the official lines come out, I compare my projections with the actual spreads, and usually I am within a few points. In a few rare instances, there is significant discrepancy between my projected line and the actual lines. This week there are four games where I think the oddsmakers got it wrong. This doesn't necessarily mean they are safe bets or locks of the week, just a small advantage to consider when moving forward with selecting games for the week. Check back to The Pick List on Thursday and Friday of each week for my final selections.

DATE                            GAME                                MY LINE                        ACTUAL

Saturday                    UConn @ Rutgers                Rutgers (-7)                    Rutgers (-9 to 10)


Rutgers has been playing very well as of late with key wins against South Florida and Arkansas. They are starting to look like a legitimate contender for the Big East title. They get a home game against a UConn team that struggled against the lowly Buffalo Bulls last week. I think the Huskies may have been looking past Buffalo in anticipation for this big matchup against Rutgers. The line discrepancy isn't huge, but I am interested to see which way this one moves in the next few days.

Saturday                   Arkansas @ Auburn            Auburn (-5)                    Auburn (-9 to 10)

Arkansas ran into a hungry Texas A&M team last week looking to claim their first SEC win. While the Hogs have been playing poorly (to put it nicely), they are still moving the ball up and down the field. Auburn surprisingly played LSU down to the wire two weeks ago, but their offense has struggled all season. I see this game to be a low scoring affair, making Arkansas +10 a good value. Apparently the public agrees with this reasoning, as I think the line has moved to Auburn -8 in some sportsbooks.

Saturday                   Arizona @ Stanford            Stanford (-10)                Stanford (-7 to 7.5)

Arizona moved the ball well, but sqaundered many opportunities in their first road test of the year at Oregon (in which they lost 49-0). It's hard to say if the Wildcats had road jitters or just played a bad game. They did look decent at home against a solid Oregon State defense, but can they carry that type of play on the road with them to Stanford, whose defense has looked sharp all season (even in last weeks loss to Washington). Stanford has been up and down all year (almost losing to San Jose State, crushing Duke, huge win over USC, letdown at Washington). One has to think Stanford would be motivated in this game, playing at home and trying to avenge last weeks loss. Also, Arizona plays the 3-3-5 defense, which Stanford should be able to take advantage of with their power running game.

Saturday                   Michigan @ Purdue            Michigan (-6)                  Michigan (-3)

I think Purdue has a legitimate chance at upsetting the Wolverines in this game, but I was surprised the oddsmakers started this line so low. I think the public will likely bet it up to around 5 or 6 in favor of Michigan, but I will likely stay away from this game regardless.


 


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